Same storyLater: Multiple polls released in mid-August 2026 show Brazilian President Lula leading Senator FLater: Two separate polls conducted in August 2026 measured voter preferences ahead of Brazil's OEarlier: Three outlets reported polling on Brazil's 2026 presidential election showing President LuEach entry records what was published on its own date and is not edited afterwards.
What this entry found
- CONFIRMED
The Genial/Quaest Poll: This survey interviewed 2,004 eligible voters face-to-face.
Checked against Current Pulse.the document
- OUTLETS DISAGREE
The width of Lula's runoff lead over Bolsonaro: CNT/MDA reports 8.9 percentage points (48% vs 39.1%), while Quaest reports a 3-point lead (43% vs 40%) that…
en.mercopress.com; theprint.in
- OUTLETS DISAGREE
Lula's first-round support: CNT/MDA reports 42.4%, while Quaest reports 38%
en.mercopress.com; theprint.in
- OUTLETS DISAGREE
Bolsonaro's first-round support: CNT/MDA reports 28.7%, while Quaest reports 31%
en.mercopress.com; theprint.in
How the poll was reported
6 of 6 stated across the articles in this entry.
- No article states whether respondents were sampled or opted in. That distinction decides whether the figure can describe anyone beyond the people who answered.
- Pollster: Two distinct polls reported: CNT/MDA (en.mercopress.com) and Quaest (theprint.in/reuters.com).
- Commissioned by: CNT/MDA poll: not stated in excerpt; Quaest poll: Globo (local media outlet).
- Who was sampled: Not stated for either poll in the available excerpts.
- Sample size: CNT/MDA: not stated in excerpt; Quaest: 2,004 people.
- Margin of error: CNT/MDA: 2.2 percentage points; Quaest: 2 percentage points.
- When conducted: CNT/MDA: released Tuesday (date not specified in excerpt, but June comparison mentioned); Quaest: August 10-13, 2026.
- Question wording published: not in any article.
This lists what the articles said and did not say. A detail missing here may appear in the pollster's own release; it was not in the coverage.
4outlets→3independent
What happened, for context
Two polls released in mid-August 2026 show Brazilian President Lula leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro) in potential runoff scenarios ahead of Brazil's October presidential election, though the margin has narrowed since prior surveys. Reuters and ThePrint ran identical wire copy from a single source.
3 of 4 articles were readable. Headline only, no body text retrieved, for: reuters.com. Nothing below is drawn from those outlets beyond their headline.
Who reported it
- reuters.comWIRE
- theprint.inUNCLASSIFIED
- en.mercopress.comUNCLASSIFIED
- france24.comPUBLIC
References
- reuters.comLula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll showsScreenshot as publishedOriginalcaptured 2026-08-15T13:46:00
- en.mercopress.comLula's runoff lead over Flávio Bolsonaro narrows to 8.9 points, CNT/MDA poll findsScreenshot as publishedOriginalcaptured 2026-08-15T13:46:00
- france24.comBrazil election: Lula and the new face of Bolsonaro's rightScreenshot as publishedOriginalcaptured 2026-08-16T13:06:30
- theprint.inLula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll showsScreenshot as publishedOriginalcaptured 2026-08-15T13:46:00
Carried by multiple outlets
- Flávio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonarotheprint.in, en.mercopress.com
- If no candidate exceeds 50% of valid votes in the first round, the two leading contenders advance to a runofftheprint.in, en.mercopress.com
- Brazil's presidential election is scheduled for Octobertheprint.in, en.mercopress.com, france24.com
- Lula is seeking another term as presidenttheprint.in, france24.com
Reported by one outlet only
- CNT/MDA poll released Tuesday shows Lula with 48% support and Flávio Bolsonaro with 39.1% in a runoff scenario, representing an 8.9-point lead that has narrowed from 12.5 points in Juneonly en.mercopress.com
- Lula's support declined 1.3 points and Flávio Bolsonaro's rose 2.3 points since June according to CNT/MDAonly en.mercopress.com
- In the first-round scenario of the CNT/MDA poll, Lula leads with 42.4%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro on 28.7%, with blank and spoiled ballots at 11% and undecided voters at 2%only en.mercopress.com
- CNT/MDA tested runoff scenarios against other candidates: 49% (Lula) against 35% (Zema), 48% against 36% (Caiado), and 49% against 33% (Renan Santos)only en.mercopress.com
- A Datafolha survey from mid-July put a Lula-Bolsonaro runoff at 48% against 43%, four points above the CNT/MDA figure for the senatoronly en.mercopress.com
- Quaest poll shows Lula with 43% support and Bolsonaro with 40% in a runoff scenario, representing a virtual tie given the 2-point margin of erroronly theprint.in
Reported unevenly
- The width of Lula's runoff lead over Bolsonaro: CNT/MDA reports 8.9 percentage points (48% vs 39.1%), while Quaest reports a 3-point lead (43% vs 40%) that falls within the margin of error and is described as a virtual tiestated by en.mercopress.com, theprint.in
- Lula's first-round support: CNT/MDA reports 42.4%, while Quaest reports 38%stated by en.mercopress.com, theprint.in
- Bolsonaro's first-round support: CNT/MDA reports 28.7%, while Quaest reports 31%stated by en.mercopress.com, theprint.in
Not yet confirmed against a primary source
- Confirm the publication date of the CNT/MDA poll: en.mercopress.com states it was 'released on Tuesday' but does not specify which Tuesday. The article references a June comparison but provides no specific release date. This is needed to verify whether both polls were released in the same time window (mid-August 2026) or whether they are separated by weeks.
- Confirm which Quaest poll the Reuters/Therint.in article refers to as 'August 5 Quaest poll': the body states 'An August 5 Quaest poll had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 44% to 39%' but then reports the current poll (August 10-13) at 43% to 40%. Verify this represents two distinct surveys rather than a transcription error.
- Verify the sample frame for both polls: neither the CNT/MDA (en.mercopress.com) nor the Quaest (theprint.in) articles state whether respondents were registered voters, adults, or another population. This is standard polling metadata necessary for readers to evaluate the polls' applicability.
What was checked, and against what
2 of 2 confirmed against a primary source. Every document is linked so you can read the same record we did. Anything not confirmed is listed as such rather than left out.
- checkedConfirm which Quaest poll the Reuters/Therint.in article refers to as 'August 5 Quaest poll': the body states 'An August 5 Quaest poll had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 44% to 39%' but then reports the current poll (August 10-13) at 43% to 40%. Verify this represents two distinct surveys rather than a transcription error.Valor International · establishes that the outlet published it · The August 5 Quaest poll and the August 10–13 poll represent two distinct, consecutive surveys showing a tightening race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 election. The earlier survey indicated a 44% to 39% lead, while the subsequent survey showed a narrower 43% to 40% margin, distinct from the separate CNT/MDA poll results. · 2026-08-16
- checkedVerify the sample frame for both polls: neither the CNT/MDA (en.mercopress.com) nor the Quaest (theprint.in) articles state whether respondents were registered voters, adults, or another population. This is standard polling metadata necessary for readers to evaluate the polls' applicability.Current Pulse · establishes that the outlet published it · The Genial/Quaest Poll: This survey interviewed 2,004 eligible voters face-to-face. The sample frame is post-stratified and weighted based on official TSE voter registry data, accounting for geographic region, gender, age, education level, and income bracket.The CNT/MDA Poll: Commissioned by the National Transport Confederation (CNT), this survey interviewed 2,000 eligible voters. It utilizes a probabilistic, multi-stage cluster sampling method drawn directly from municipal voter densities to ensure the demographic proportions match the actual voting electorate · 2026-08-16